This week on Sunday Night Live, Hidden Gems Research and The Zero Hour Group sits down with special guest Legitimate Risk for an in-depth conversation about the strategy, discipline, and risk management that helped him grow a roughly $150,000 portfolio to more than $625,000 in three years - trading shares only, with no options or leverage.

Legitimate Risk shares the personal story behind the investor, from immigrating to the United States from Ukraine to surviving a life-changing accident and spending years rebuilding his life. He explains how a chance meeting with a mentor eventually introduced him to investing and how his background in statistics and computer science helped shape the probability-based approach he uses today.

We break down the core of his investing process, including:

• Why he compares investing to playing poker and managing probabilities

• His emphasis on patience, discipline, and risk management

• Why he prefers averaging up into proven winners instead of constantly averaging down

• How he manages position sizing and avoids going “all in” on a single idea

• The 40–50 factors he uses to filter potential investments

• How he trained his AI system, “Skynet,” to help screen hundreds of companies while still making the final investment decisions himself

• Why AI should be used as a research assistant — not blindly trusted to pick stocks

• How he approaches market fear, volatility, falling knives, small caps, and speculative trades

• Why new investors should learn how to successfully trade shares before jumping into complex options strategies

We also dig into some of the stocks and trades that have shaped his portfolio, including NVIDIA, ONDS, SPAI, Kopin, Richtech Robotics, and several other companies he has researched or owned. Legitimate Risk explains what worked, what didn’t, how he handled losing positions, and why consistently finding quality companies with favorable upside-to-downside probabilities has been more important than chasing the next explosive trade.

Beyond the markets, the conversation gets into the psychology of retail investing — greed, fear, panic, patience, chasing momentum, learning from other investors, and the difference between receiving a stock pick and actually understanding why you own something.

The Zero Hour Group also gives updates from the recent Safe Pro Group technology demonstration in Miami, previews upcoming coverage from the Commercial UAV Expo in Las Vegas, and discusses more on-the-ground content coming from across the drone, defense, autonomy, and emerging-technology sectors.

If you’re a retail investor looking for a methodical approach to building wealth without relying on leverage or complicated trading strategies, this is an episode you’ll want to hear.

Retail investors, for retail investors.

Subscribe and follow for more Sunday Night Live interviews, stock research, company deep dives, technology demonstrations, and on-the-ground coverage from the industries shaping the future.

This content is provided for educational and entertainment purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and make investment decisions based on your individual circumstances.

#Investing #StockMarket #RetailInvesting #Stocks #StockResearch #SundayNightLive #ZeroHourGroup #RiskManagement #InvestingStrategy #SPAI #ONDS #NVDA

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Since starting 2026, the stock market has been on a turbulent path and the waters arent getting any smoother. In this article I will lay out what I think will happen for the rest of the year and why I think we will see some amazing opportunities as we get closer to November.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh told the Jackson Hole crowd this morning that inflation is running above the Fed’s 2% target. “The Fed’s predominant focus right now should be on prices,” he said. Two-year Treasury yields jumped 8 basis points within minutes, gold fell 2.9%, and Bitcoin dropped 3%. The Russell 2000 gave back 1.2% before lunch. The market spent the summer pricing in rate cuts, and the man running the Fed sharply pivoted from an approach with rate cut pressures to one where guidance was no longer given. This, on top of midterms, has created a very bearish macro outlook in the short term but most investors are missing what the data supports happening next. First, a nervous, headline-driven run into Election Day. Then a setup that has shown up in every midterm year for seventy years, one that rarely gets discussed until it’s already underway. The Fed fight happening inside the FOMC right now, the full historical record on midterm years rather than the average alone, the Bitcoin cycle debate splitting Wall Street’s biggest names, and the fintech, small-cap, natural gas, software, and metals trades that connect them all feed the same conclusion. Lets dive in!

THE FED CHANGED THE STORY

Kevin Warsh took over as Fed Chair on May 22, 2026, confirmed by the Senate 54-45, the narrowest margin in the Fed chair’s history. He is a hawk, installed to prioritize price stability after years of Fed critics arguing the previous regime let inflation run too hot for too long. He inherited an economy still working through the aftershocks of the February-to-April conflict with Iran, which shut the Strait of Hormuz for weeks and sent Brent crude to $112 a barrel. Gas prices climbed toward $5 a gallon before a ceasefire brought oil back down. WTI crude sits around $83 a barrel today, well below the war peak but still elevated against the $65-70 range it traded in before the strikes. Aside from existing tariffs, this is the main inflation concern that Warsh is fighting: a supply shock still working its way through year-over-year comparisons that doesn’t respond to a rate move the way an overheating economy would.

The Fed held rates at 3.50%-3.75% at its July 29 meeting, but the vote divergence tells the real story. Three regional presidents (Cleveland’s Beth Hammack, Minneapolis’s Neel Kashkari, and Dallas’s Lorie Logan) dissented in favor of an immediate hike, the most hawkish FOMC vote in nearly a decade. All three pointed to the same risk: five years of above-target inflation creating the danger that elevated price expectations become embedded in wage negotiations and business pricing decisions. Logan argued rates should move “modestly” higher now rather than later. Warsh embraced the split instead of downplaying it. “I asked for a good family fight, and I got one,” he told reporters, before summing up where the committee stands: “This is a period of watchful thinking, not watchful waiting.” Watchful waiting would mean the Fed is on hold and leaning toward cuts once data allows it. Watchful thinking means every option, hike included, stays on the table until the data forces a decision.

J.P. Morgan Wealth Management now puts the odds of a 25 basis point hike at the September meeting near 65%, up from near zero a month ago. Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks today confirmed why: he’s more worried about looking soft on inflation than about a labor market that’s already showing cracks. Bond traders read him right. Yields on the short end jumped harder with traders now expecting tighter policy soon rather than later. The 10-year sits at 4.66%. Cash and short paper pay close to 3.8%. The market does not like uncertainty and with midterms looming I believe the market will drive lower.. for now.

THE MIDTERM PATTERN NOBODY’S PRICING RIGHT

Many outlooks skip the year-by-year record and quote only the average, for these midterms, its important we zoom out. J.P. Morgan’s research desk pulled S&P 500 returns across every midterm election year going back decades, and the quarterly pattern holds up. The first three quarters of a midterm year average small negative returns: -0.5% in Q1, -0.6% in Q2, -0.1% in Q3. Then the fourth quarter jumps an average of 6.6%. J.P. Morgan’s strategists attribute the shift to fading political uncertainty. Investors stop discounting an unknown outcome once the outcome is known, and the rally tends to start about a month before Election Day itself.

Behind that average, the full-year numbers look messier and more useful: 1994 finished down 1.5%; 2002, in the teeth of the dot-com unwind, down 23.4%; 2010 up 12.8%; 2014 up 11.4%; 2018 down 6.2%; and 2022, with the Fed hiking into a bear market, down 19.4%. The average across midterm years since 1950 sits around +4.6%, but that average hides two very different regimes: years where the Fed and macro backdrop cooperate (2010, 2014) and years where they don’t (2002, 2018, 2022). The regime 2026 falls into depends almost entirely on what Warsh does in September, which is why the Fed section above isn’t a separate story from this one.

Fear not as a strong rally is in the cards, backed by data. The S&P 500 has finished higher in the twelve months following every single midterm election since 1950, nineteen for nineteen. however, the magnitude of the moves vary widely. The year after 1994 delivered 34.1%, the year after 2002 delivered 26.4%, the year after 2010 came in flat, and the year after 2014 was the lone soft spot at -0.7%. The years after 2018 and 2022 delivered 28.9% and 24.2%. Even the weakest post-midterm stretches on record land near breakeven, not negative. Mid fall should mark the bottom of a dramatic year as the inklings of a rally start to form. There are some factors we need to consider.

Two things make 2026 different from the historical template, one bearish and one bullish. The bearish difference: the S&P 500 has already gained 12.78% year to date, sitting near its all-time high of 7,816. Previously seasonal rallies have started on a flat-to-negative setup, which raises the odds of a short-term pullback in September and October rather than the mild chop history shows. A market that’s already expensive going into a hawkish Fed decision has more room to fall than a market that’s already priced in disappointment. The bullish difference: Democrats now lead the generic congressional ballot by 6 points, 47% to 41%, according to Decision Desk HQ’s August tracking, up from a 4-point lead in July. Voters are blaming rising gas prices and the Iran conflict for that shift. With a 6-point edge, Democrats are within reach of a House flip, and Senate control looks like a toss-up, which creates the “uncertainty resolves” mechanism that could lead to a Q4 rally through a trackable catalyst in a regime change plus clearing up uncertainty of who will come out on top.

Put those two pieces together: a market already stretched, a Fed that took cuts off the table, and volatility events (the September FOMC decision, October CPI prints, the final weeks of campaign season) all landing in the same eight-week window. These are the main macro overhangs driving a pullback. After November 3, a different pattern takes over, one the seasonal data has repeated in every midterm cycle for seventy years, and one where the post-election twelve-month record is close to unbroken. Now I watch to touch on some industries that could do well into this upcoming market volatility.

WHAT TENDS TO HOLD UP BEFORE THE VOTE

Going into a stretch like this, the names that hold up best carry revenue and backlog that don’t depend on the Fed’s next move. Two things matter most: contracted revenue that gets funded regardless of interest rates, and a government or institutional buyer on the other side of the trade who isn’t shopping around based on the cost of capital.

I expect the broader government-backed critical minerals trade to hold up and catch a strong bid. MP Materials ($MP) has the Pentagon as its largest shareholder after a July 2025 deal that included a price floor on the rare earths MP produces inside the US, plus $110.9 million in additional federal price-protection support disclosed this year. This created a government backstop sitting underneath a stock, which matters a great deal when many other equities in the market are reacting to a single Fed chair’s choice of adjective. A 25 basis point surprise in September becomes somebody else’s problem once the Pentagon is functionally long your stock at a guaranteed floor price.

That same logic extends past defense and critical minerals. EQT Corporation ($EQT), the largest natural gas producer in Appalachia, sits on the acreage Morgan Stanley expects to supply a forecasted 4.8 billion cubic feet a day of new demand from AI data centers by 2030, a buildout funded by hyperscaler capital budgets rather than the Fed funds rate. SentinelOne ($S) also carries the same kind of insulation from a different angle: annual recurring revenue grew 22% year over year to $1.2 billion, with 1,715 customers now paying at least $100,000 a year on contracts that renew on their own schedule regardless of what happens in September.

None of these three names are immune to a broad selloff if the S&P corrects 10% into October. On the other hand, all 3 of these play in a field that can survive a market downturn that is overweight with tech and potentially thrive.

THE BITCOIN CYCLE’S SECOND WIND

Bitcoin halved its mining reward on April 20, 2024, the fourth halving in the asset’s history, and the three previous halvings all produced the same shape: a price peak arriving 12 to 18 months later, driven by the supply cut working through a market where demand kept growing. The 2012 halving preceded a peak near $1,150 about thirteen months later; 2016 topped near $19,700 about seventeen months out; and 2020 peaked near $69,000 roughly eighteen months after the reward cut. This cycle held to the same rhythm on schedule: Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $126,198 in October 2025, eighteen months after the halving, matching the pattern. It has since fallen to $77,416, down 39% from the peak, with today’s Jackson Hole selloff knocking another 3% off the price.

The debate right now is whether that October peak was the actual cycle top or a mid-cycle shakeout on the way to a second, higher peak. Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer argues the top is already in and 2026 becomes what he calls a “dormant year,” with downside toward $55,000-$75,000 if his read is correct. Standard Chartered and Bernstein take the other side, projecting $130,000-$150,000 by year-end on the combination of continued institutional inflows, regulatory clarity, and a Fed that eventually has to cut once the Iran-driven inflation spike rolls out of the year-over-year comparisons.

The ETF flow data backs both camps, a sign of how unsettled this question still is. Bitcoin spot ETFs pulled in $853.5 million in net inflows for the week ended August 7, the largest weekly total since mid-April, with BlackRock’s IBIT alone capturing $693 million of it, 81% of the total. That’s a strong signal of institutions potentially dipping back in. But zoom out and the ETF complex is still sitting on $4.5 billion in net outflows year to date, meaning one strong week doesn’t undo months of selling. Compare that to the run that drove the October 2025 peak: between April and October of last year, Bitcoin climbed from around $75,000 to $126,000 on weekly ETF inflows that exceeded $1 billion on multiple occasions. A single $853 million week is a start. It is not yet that kind of run.

Regulation is the other lever. The CLARITY Act, the bill meant to divide crypto oversight between the SEC and CFTC, missed its August voting window in the Senate and is now targeting a vote during the three-week September session before Congress breaks for the midterms. It needs 60 votes, which means winning over close to 10 Senate Democrats, and the sticking points could potentially stall the bill with concerns centered around ethics provisions restricting senior officials, Trump included, from backing crypto projects, plus unresolved stablecoin-yield and illicit-finance rules. Industry lobbyists call passage “doable” if those disputes get resolved in September. If they don’t, the bill likely dies until a new Congress, and the regulatory-clarity leg of the bull case goes with it. Once the bill clears the next crypto rally starts with it, boosting coins and fintech as a whole.

BitMine Immersion ($BMNR), the Ethereum treasury company chaired by Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, is the equity proxy trading with the most leverage to this debate. The company holds 5.85 million ETH, near 5% of total supply, built through an “Alchemy of 5%” accumulation strategy, and the stock swings harder than Bitcoin itself in both directions because it’s a concentrated bet on a single balance sheet in a volatile assett. It’s an Ethereum trade riding on Bitcoin-cycle sentiment: the same risk-on flows that lift Bitcoin tend to lift Ethereum and BMNR alongside it, but the correlation isn’t one to one, and a rotation out of Ethereum specifically would hit BMNR without necessarily hitting Bitcoin. Even with that being the case they should move in tandem if regulations ease and confirmation on government seats are in.

This is all connective tissue in a bigger story: if the oil shock inflation reads roll off by Q4 the way base effects tend to, and if the midterm outcome removes political uncertainty the way it has in every prior cycle, the Fed gets more room to ease exactly when Bitcoin’s own four-year rhythm would be finding a second wind rather than staying dormant. None of that is guaranteed, and the CLARITY Act’s odds look closer to a coin flip than a lock. But the pieces are pointed the same direction on the same calendar, and I like the set up for what could be one of the most surgical rebound trades of the 2020’s.

THE PIVOT TRADE: SMALL CAPS AND FINTECH INTO YEAR-END

Small caps already show what happens when this alignment shows up: they’ve lived through the mirror image of it all year. The Russell 2000 sits at 2,972, up more than 29% from its 52-week low of 2,303 and within 3% of its all-time high, even after today’s hawkish-Fed pullback. The mechanism is straightforward: small-cap companies carry more floating-rate debt than large caps on average, so their interest expense moves with the Fed almost in real time, unlike a mega-cap that termed out its debt at fixed rates years ago. That makes the Russell the single most rate-sensitive corner of the market in either direction. It’s also a different sector mix than the S&P, with heavier weightings in regional banks, industrials, and small emerging tech, none of which benefit from a “higher for longer” Fed the way a cash-rich mega-cap tech balance sheet does. Small caps have already rallied hard on rate-cut hope this year and have also given back heavily on any bearish macro sentiment. A confirmed hike in September would hit them hardest on the way down, and a confirmed pivot back toward cuts in Q4 would send them hardest on the way back up, for the same balance-sheet reason working in reverse.

$ONDS and $UMAC, two names we flagged before they ran 2,600% and 340%, sit in that bucket: small defense-and-drone names, thin enough that any risk-on rotation moves them fast, especially when they are based in one of the hottest sectors. Watch how they trade in the September-October chop (my levels are posted for premium subscribers). What for a late October move on adjacent positions.

Robinhood ($HOOD) is my favorite fintech name to watch for a different mechanical reason: it sits at the intersection of the crypto trade and the retail risk-on trade at the same time. Shares trade at $104.26 today, down 5% alongside Bitcoin’s Jackson Hole selloff, against a 52-week range of $63.52 to $153.86. Bernstein carries an Outperform rating and a $160 price target, built on a thesis that Robinhood has moved past being a trading app, while my target sits much higher, closer to $200, due to their entry into prediction markets and sports betting on top of trading. Robinhood Chain has processed over $12 billion in decentralized exchange volume and 150 million transactions. Its prediction-markets business, run through the CFTC-regulated Rothera exchange, processed 3.5 billion contracts this year, 2.1 billion of them in the second quarter alone, and now generates more revenue than the company’s crypto trading desk, a strong shift in the business mix that is sure to continue expanding as these markets grow. Robinhood Earn has pulled in over $200 million in deposits, and management is building toward tokenized equities and global investing access as the next leg, not just a better trading app. If Bitcoin gets its second wind into year-end and the midterm outcome clears a fog that’s been sitting over risk assets since spring, Robinhood is levered to both halves of that trade at once.

GOLD, SILVER, AND THE INFLATION WILDCARD

One scenario still unaddressed: Warsh is right, inflation doesn’t cool, and the Fed holds rates higher for longer even as the midterm fog clears. Gold and silver cover that scenario, and it’s the one part of this outlook that works whether the rate-cut story plays out or not as long as they don’t rise again.

Gold sits at $4,506 an ounce today, down from a 52-week high of $5,626.80 but still 28.5% above its 52-week low of $3,506. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF ($GLD) is the simplest way to hold that move directly, trading at $408.89 against a 52-week range of $313.07 to $509.70. Silver has moved even harder: $67.02 an ounce today, after touching a 52-week high of $121.30 and off a 52-week low of $38.91. Part of that silver spike traces back to Beijing. China moved to restrict silver exports effective January 1, 2026, using the same licensing playbook it applied to rare earths and germanium: an 80-ton minimum production threshold that leaves only 44 companies worldwide licensed to export the metal. China controls 70% of the silver traded worldwide, and one commodities analyst covering the restrictions put potential upside at 30% over twelve months if Beijing enforces the rule at full strength.

There’s a second, more recent catalyst stacking on top of the China story. On August 19, the Treasury Department announced it would at least double buybacks of long-dated government debt, the 10-year through 30-year maturities. Bond yields fell on the news (the 10-year dropped 5 basis points to 4.7%, the 30-year fell 8 basis points to 5.2%), and lower long-term yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding a metal that pays no yield of its own. Mining stocks moved far more than the metals themselves, which is the leverage this sector is known for: Hecla Mining ($HL) surged 13% to $20.29 that day after sitting down 6% year to date, Coeur Mining ($CDE) rose 13% to $20.83 after being up only 4% for the year, First Majestic Silver ($AG) climbed to $20.57, and the Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF ($SILJ) jumped 9% intraday. That’s operating leverage: small metal price moves turn into much larger percentage swings in the equities.

The underlying miner fundamentals back up the move on top of the momentum. Hecla posted record Q3 revenue of $410 million, up 67% year over year, on an all-in sustaining cost near $11 an ounce, among the lowest in the sector thanks to lead and zinc by-product credits, and net leverage has fallen to roughly 0.3x from 1.8x a year earlier. Pan American Silver’s quarter was just as strong: revenue hit a record $884 million, up 24% year over year, after the MAG Silver acquisition added the high-grade Juanicipio mine and pulled AISC down to roughly $15 an ounce. First Majestic more than doubled Q3 silver production to 3.9 million ounces, with revenue nearly doubling alongside it to $285 million. Worth flagging: consensus analyst price targets on these names were set when silver traded closer to $72 an ounce and, in some cases, now sit below the current share prices, which either means the equities have run ahead of where Wall Street models justify or the models haven’t caught up to how fast the metal has moved.

This is a strong setup if rates hold steady into 2027 while inflation stays sticky: a genuine supply squeeze on top of a metal that already serves as an inflation hedge, a bond market response adding a second tailwind on top of it, and a Fed that has told you it’s prioritizing price stability over growth. Gold and silver don’t need a rate cut to work in that scenario. They need a central bank staying tight while prices keep running hot, which is what Warsh described today. MP Materials sits in the same trade for the same reason: a domestic producer with a government backstop, while China keeps turning export licenses into a foreign-policy tool.

WHAT COULD GO WRONG

Warsh’s inflation focus could prove correct, and a September hike followed by a stickier-than-expected CPI print would extend the “no cuts” regime well past the midterms, pushing the Bitcoin and small-cap pivot trade out to 2027 rather than this December. “Watchful thinking” cuts both ways: a committee that hasn’t decided can land on two hikes as easily as zero. The Iran ceasefire is a truce, not a settlement, and any reescalation reopens the Strait of Hormuz risk that drove oil to $112 in March. Timmer’s bear case on Bitcoin, that October 2025 was the actual cycle top and 2026 stays dormant, has real analysts behind it, a market that’s already down 39% from that high, and a year-to-date ETF outflow figure that hasn’t fully reversed to show for it. The CLARITY Act could stall in September exactly the way it stalled in August, taking the regulatory-clarity leg of the crypto bull case off the table until a new Congress convenes. A Democratic wave big enough to flip both chambers could unsettle markets around specific policy fights (drug pricing, tax changes, spending bills) as easily as it could resolve the uncertainty that’s supposed to fuel the Q4 rally. And silver, up 72% from its 52-week low even after the recent pullback, has already made a large move on the China restriction story, with several miners now trading above where analyst models justify. A lot of that catalyst may already be priced in.

THE SETUP, SUMMARIZED

Warsh told you today what he’s optimizing for: prices over growth, at least through September, with a committee split three ways on how far and how fast to act. That sets up a rough stretch into the midterms, with a market that’s already expensive and a Fed that pulled the rate-cut narrative off the table, eight weeks of election-season headline risk still ahead. But the seasonal pattern behind midterm Q4 rallies has held for seventy years, the post-election twelve-month record is nineteen for nineteen since 1950, the generic ballot points toward the kind of decisive outcome that has triggered the pattern before, and Bitcoin’s four-year rhythm lines up with the same calendar window. Own the names with backlog and government backing through the chop, and watch the small caps and Robinhood for the moment sentiment turns. Keep gold, silver, and the miners in the mix regardless, because that trade doesn’t need the Fed to cooperate.

Disclosure

The information provided in this publication is for educational and informational purposes only. Nothing in this content should be interpreted as a recommendation, solicitation, or offer to buy or sell any security. I do not provide personalized investment advice or individualized recommendations. All examples, tickers, scenarios, and analyses are strictly for general educational discussion.

The views expressed are my own and do not represent the views, policies, or recommendations of any employer, broker-dealer, or affiliate. Any securities referenced are used solely as case studies to demonstrate research methods and analysis frameworks.

Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. You are solely responsible for your own investment decisions. Consult a licensed financial professional for personalized guidance.

In this live Hidden Gems Research session, I break down three of my highest-conviction trade setups right now: $AMPX, $HOOD, and $RDW - along with the options strategies I’m watching as volatility continues to create opportunity.

We dig into cash-secured puts, LEAPS, covered calls, gamma levels, put/call walls, and the Gem Vault Watchlist to show how I’m…

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The conversation starts with $ONDS / Ondas Inc, as the team examines the company’s latest acquisition and what it could mean for Ondas’ manufacturing capacity in Israel. They discuss the strategic value of adding established engineering and production infrastructure close to customers, the company’s growing international footprint, and why Ondas continues to use shares as a tool to fund its aggressive expansion strategy.

They also tackle one of the biggest debates surrounding Ondas right now: dilution versus long-term growth. JT and Benny discuss the tradeoffs for shareholders, the company’s rising institutional ownership, elevated short interest, and why Ondas may be transitioning from a rapid momentum play into a much longer-term defense and autonomy thesis.

The second half of the show focuses heavily on $SPAI / Safe Pro Group and its AI-powered drone imagery technology. The team discusses Safe Pro’s ability to detect and map landmines, unexploded ordnance, cluster munitions, ambush drones, and other battlefield threats using its SpotD platform. They also look at the potential opportunity surrounding demining, Ukrainian reconstruction, force protection, agriculture, and Safe Pro’s broader Drone as a First Responder ecosystem.

JT and Benny also preview The Zero Hour Group’s upcoming trip to Miami for Safe Pro Innovation Day, where the team will get a closer look at the technology and speak directly with people involved in the company.

Also covered:

• Rising bond yields and pressure on technology stocks

• Ondas’ growing manufacturing and defense infrastructure

• $ONDS dilution, institutional ownership, and short interest

• The long-term international opportunity for autonomous defense systems

• Safe Pro’s AI-powered explosive threat detection technology

• Ukraine reconstruction and the massive demining opportunity

• Drone as a First Responder applications for public safety

• The growing need for domestic counter-UAS infrastructure

• $KOPN and Fabric AI’s new joint steering committee

• Upcoming Zero Hour Group interviews, field visits, and defense-tech coverage

The Zero Hour Group is built by retail investors, for retail investors — bringing you conversations, company access, field research, and analysis from the rapidly evolving drone, defense, autonomy, and emerging technology markets.

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In this episode, JT and Benny break down the massive moves across the drone, defense, photonics, and emerging technology sectors, including $ONDS, $UMAC, $SPAI, $LPTH, $AMPX, $LTRX, and $KOPN. We look at where each name sits technically, key support and resistance levels, potential entries, covered-call and cash-secured-put strategies, and where we think momentum could take these stocks next.

We also dive deeper into the rapidly evolving U.S. drone industry: domestic manufacturing, Drone Dominance, NDAA-compliant supply chains, the competitive gap with China, and why scalability and the ability to rapidly iterate hardware could determine which companies ultimately become major winners in the space.

On top of the public markets, we discuss emerging private companies and the broader drone ecosystem, including Performance Drone Works, Neros, ANRA Technologies, and the growing need for airspace-management infrastructure as autonomous systems scale.

Also covered:

• Safe Pro Group’s explosive move following earnings

• Ondas’ growth, backlog, acquisitions, and global expansion

• Unusual Machines and the U.S. drone-component supply chain

• Technical setups in LightPath, Amprius, Lantronix, and Kopin

• Newer names on the Zero Hour Group watchlist

• Upcoming Zero Hour Group travel and on-location coverage

• Our upcoming trip to Florida for Safe Pro Group’s threat-detection technology demonstration

• More interviews and footage from the Commercial Drone Alliance Leadership Summit

• Upcoming episodes of Kate’s Takes and additional industry interviews

The mission remains the same: get closer to the companies, leadership teams, technology, and events shaping the industries we invest in — and bring that information directly back to retail investors.

Subscribe and follow The Zero Hour Group on Substack, X, and YouTube for weekly livestreams, company deep dives, earnings coverage, executive interviews, and on-location reporting from across the drone, defense, AI, robotics, and emerging technology industries.

By Retail Investors, For Retail Investors.

This content is for educational and entertainment purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consider your individual risk tolerance before making investment decisions.

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Nvidia put $2 billion into Coherent in March. Then it put another $2 billion into Lumentum. Both deals came with multiyear purchase commitments for the lasers and optical components that keep AI data centers from choking on their own copper wiring, and both stocks did exactly what you’d expect an Nvidia-backed company to do. Lumentum is up more than 1,000% over the past year and joined the S&P 500 in March and the Nasdaq-100 in May. Coherent hit a 52-week high near $440, up over 100% year to date, with demand for its AI transceivers booked out through 2028. Ciena’s optical networking business grew revenue 40% year over year last quarter and the stock has traded above $480. Every one of those numbers has been written up a dozen times by now. Coherent, Lumentum, and Ciena are the photonics stocks a casual reader has already heard of, and at current multiples, all three are priced at premiums that I cant justify owning anymore. The problem with the obvious names once everyone’s covered them is that the upside is no longer there and its more likely you’ll end up as exit liquidity. This is why I’ve created this list here for you today, some of these names are popular but still have plenty of upside runway.

The story is true. Copper interconnects run out of runway as AI clusters scale, and every hyperscaler building a bigger cluster needs more optical links to move data between racks without melting the power budget. The optical transceiver market is on pace to jump roughly 60% in a single year, to around $26 billion in 2026. That growth doesn’t stop at the three tickers everyone already owns. Below are five companies with their own unique exposure to the same buildout, picked because each one solves a different piece of the problem and none of them get mentioned in the same breath as Coherent and Lumentum nearly as often as they will in the next few years.

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Fabrinet

Fabrinet doesn’t sell you a laser or a transceiver but it does build the ones other companies sell. The Thailand-based contract manufacturer runs the precision optical assembly lines behind a huge share of the industry’s actual output, which means it collects a paycheck no matter which optics vendor wins a given hyperscaler’s business. Fiscal third-quarter revenue hit a record $1.214 billion, up 39% year over year, and the data center interconnect line grew 42% on rising shipments of 400ZR and 800ZR modules, the products carrying traffic between AI data centers today.

That picks-and-shovels position is the whole thesis behind this pick as photonics will increase in demand. Its also a double edged sword due to their client base. Fabrinet’s two largest customers, Nvidia and Cisco, made up roughly 46% of fiscal 2025 revenue between them. If either one brings manufacturing in-house or shifts volume to a rival contract manufacturer, the hit shows up fast. The stock has also re-rated hard, up more than 50% over the past three months, and trades in the mid-30s on forward earnings versus a mid-$13 consensus EPS estimate for fiscal 2026. You’re paying up for a business with added customer concentration risk. You’re also buying the one company that gets paid regardless of whether the AI optics race is eventually won by Coherent, Lumentum, Marvell, or somebody nobody’s heard of yet, because most of them route through Fabrinet’s floor to get built. I like the risk to reward on this set up.

MACOM

MACOM spreads its bets across three markets instead of one. The company sells analog and mixed-signal chips into data center optics, telecom, and defense and industrial customers at the same time. Data center revenue grew 36% year over year in the fiscal second quarter, industrial and defense grew 22%, and total revenue came in at $289 million, up 22.5% year over year and ahead of Wall Street’s estimate. Third-quarter guidance of $331 million to $339 million points to growth accelerating, not slowing down.

The company’s June rollout of hot via chip-scale packaging, a process that eliminates the wire bonds limiting how fast signals move through an optical module, gives MACOM a proprietary manufacturing edge that isn’t tied to any one customer’s roadmap. That diversification, in my opinion, is worth paying for, and the market has: MACOM trades near 50x forward EBITDA, a premium that assumes the data center growth rate holds even as telecom and defense grow more slowly. If AI-linked optical demand cools before those other two segments pick up the slack, that multiple has the opportunity to compress fast. MACOM earns its spot here over a narrower optical component maker because its AI datacenter growth stacks on top of two already-stable businesses making it one of my favorites in the sector.

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In this video, Hidden Gems Stock Research and The Zero Hour Group break down Ondas ($ONDS) Q2 2026 earnings live, covering what may be one of the most important earnings updates in the company’s recent history.

Ondas reported Q2 revenue of approximately $83.8 million, representing more than 13x year-over-year growth, while management emphasized that the acceleration is not being driven solely by acquisitions. On a pro forma basis, the existing portfolio generated roughly 85% organic revenue growth year over year, showing substantial growth across the underlying businesses.

Management also raised its full-year 2026 revenue target to $525–$550 million and guided for $140–$155 million of Q3 revenue, setting up another major sequential acceleration in the second half of the year.

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We break down some of the biggest takeaways from the call, including:

• $757 million pro forma backlog, with additional orders continuing to build during Q3

• A two-year strategic program pipeline exceeding $11 billion

• More than $240 million of orders connected to the U.S. Army’s $982 million lethal unmanned strike IDIQ moving toward volume shipments

• The expected ramp of Ultra, IonStrike, autonomous ground systems, ISR platforms and precision-strike programs

• Rapid growth across counter-UAS, autonomous robotics, intelligent demining and propulsion businesses

• Ondas’ expanding systems-of-systems strategy, combining sensing, cyber, electronic warfare, autonomous interception and kinetic defeat

• Progress on Skyweaver, the Edge AI and command-and-control platform being developed with Palantir

• Expansion across U.S. defense, allied militaries, critical infrastructure and international markets

• Management’s updated timeline for profitability and operating leverage

One of the biggest developments was profitability guidance. Management now expects the Ondas Autonomous Systems and Ondas Sentinel operating platform to reach profitability in Q4 2026, while company-wide adjusted EBITDA profitability is targeted for Q4 2027. If the planned Q4 revenue ramp is achieved, management also believes Ondas could exit 2026 at approximately a $1 billion annualized revenue run rate.

The balance sheet remains another major part of the story. Ondas ended the second quarter with approximately $1.4 billion in cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash and short-term investments, giving the company significant flexibility to fund production, supply chains, acquisitions and its expanding global operating infrastructure.

We also discuss the other side of the story: elevated operating expenses, the roughly $51 million adjusted EBITDA loss during Q2, near-term gross-margin pressure, acquisition integration, supply-chain execution and the challenge of converting an enormous pipeline into contracted backlog and ultimately revenue.

Despite strong earnings and increased guidance, $ONDS initially sold off following the report. We break down why the reaction may differ from the underlying fundamental story and what investors should be watching as Ondas moves into what management expects to be a significantly larger Q3 and Q4.

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Hidden Gems Stock Research focuses on emerging technology companies across drones, autonomous systems, defense technology, AI infrastructure and other high-growth markets.

This content is for educational and entertainment purposes only and should not be considered financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always conduct your own research and consider your personal financial situation and risk tolerance before making investment decisions.

#ONDS #Ondas #DroneStocks #DefenseStocks #Drones #AutonomousSystems #CounterUAS #DefenseTechnology #StockResearch #SmallCapStocks #Earnings #Palantir #Investing

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Hidden Gems Research breaks down the stocks and sectors we’re watching heading into another major week for small-cap growth, defense technology, drones, AI infrastructure, space and semiconductors.

In this stream, we go chart by chart through the watchlist, identify the technical levels that matter, discuss upcoming earnings catalysts and separate the stocks we’re actively watching for entries from the names where patience may offer a better risk/reward setup.

A major focus is $ONDS ahead of earnings. The stock has been building a strong higher-high/higher-low structure, with buyers repeatedly defending key support and momentum beginning to build into the report. We discuss what a strong earnings result could mean for the next leg of the move — while also explaining why trading directly through earnings remains a high-risk setup.

We also cover:

• $ONDS — The setup heading into earnings, major support around the $8.50 area, institutional buying and what could drive the next major move

• $UMAC — Why the long-term trend remains strong, but why the $15–$17 area may present a more attractive entry if Q3 remains focused on manufacturing expansion

• $SPAI — The breakout from deep support, strengthening volume, government-related momentum and why a retest of previous highs remains on the table

• $SRFM — A beaten-down chart, the Palantir relationship and whether Surf Air Mobility can finally establish a meaningful reversal

• $RKLB — Why Rocket Lab remains one of our higher-conviction ways to play the long-term expansion of the space economy

• $PUSA / PowerUs — One of the newest companies on our radar following our interview with co-founder Ziv Murom, with a focus on heavy-lift and agricultural drone opportunities

• $PLTR — Breaking down another major earnings win, the move toward $200 and why risk/reward looks different after the stock’s massive run

• $LPTH — Another successful bounce from the $9–$10 region, the importance of domestic optical supply chains and whether the stock can eventually challenge previous highs

• $AMPX — One of the most interesting rebound setups on the list after collapsing from nearly $25 to below $10, and why we still see significant upside potential if the recovery continues

• $DRAM — Why memory may be one of the biggest bottlenecks in the current AI infrastructure buildout and why the recent pullback created a setup worth watching

• $LTRX — An under-the-radar company supplying technology into the drone ecosystem, important resistance levels and what could unlock another leg higher

• $KOPN — Our setup going into Kopin’s earnings call, support levels, photonics and micro-LED exposure, and why the Zero Hour Group was traveling to Boston to cover the company directly

• $AVAV — A major defense and drone name recovering from a brutal drawdown, but one where we currently see better risk/reward elsewhere in the drone sector

• $ASTS — Strong technical support, continued conviction in the space economy and the case for owning multiple leaders across the emerging space sector

We also discuss the broader market environment, including improving sentiment across growth stocks, potential geopolitical tailwinds, interest-rate expectations, memory and energy bottlenecks, and why sectors such as drones, space, defense technology, AI infrastructure and photonics remain some of the most interesting areas of the market.

Later in the stream, we dig into options activity, gamma positioning, call/put volume and how tools like TraderDaddy can add another layer of technical information when evaluating potential earnings trades and short-term setups.

The goal isn’t to chase whatever stock is moving that day. It’s to identify strong companies, understand where buyers are stepping in, wait for favorable risk/reward and position around the sectors where we believe long-term capital is flowing.

Hidden Gems Research × The Zero Hour Group

By Retail Investors, For Retail Investors.

This content is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Any prices, targets or trade setups discussed represent personal opinions at the time of recording and may change as market conditions change. Always conduct your own research and consider your individual financial situation and risk tolerance before making investment decisions.

#Stocks #StockMarket #Investing #SmallCaps #ONDS #UMAC #SPAI #RKLB #PLTR #LPTH #AMPX #KOPN #ASTS #AVAV #PUSA #Drones #DefenseStocks #SpaceStocks #AIStocks #Semiconductors #TechnicalAnalysis

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Hidden Gems Research and The Zero Hour Group break down Kopin Corporation’s Q2 2026 earnings call, including commentary live from Boston following Kopin’s latest technology demonstration.

This was much more than a quarterly financial update. Kopin laid out significant progress across several of the markets we have been watching closely: defense, FPV drones, soldier-worn augmented reality, micro-LED manufacturing, AI infrastructure, photonics and optical interconnects.

Kopin reported Q2 revenue of $12.7 million, up 51% year over year, while its operating loss narrowed to $3.5 million from $5.5 million a year ago. The company has already received more than $45 million in orders during 2026 and expects its second half results to exceed its previous guidance. Most importantly, management said it expects to begin generating GAAP profitability and positive free cash flow in Q4 2026.

We break down:

• Kopin’s 150,000+ nit full-color micro-LED milestone and its importance for daylight-readable soldier AR systems
• The roadmap toward U.S.-based micro-LED production in mid-2027
• Management’s statement that programs such as Soldier Borne Mission Command could represent hundreds of millions of dollars of revenue over their lifetime
• Sentinel FPV prototype orders tied to the U.S. government’s Drone Dominance Program
• Why Drone Dominance winners could potentially require tens of thousands of FPV goggles
• Kopin’s disclosure that it is already negotiating several large FPV production orders for 2027
• More than $45 million of orders received so far in 2026
• The Fabric AI partnership and Kopin’s Neural I/O opportunity in AI data centers
• Kopin’s planned 1.6 Tbps optical transceiver demonstration at CES 2027
• New NDAs with existing NVIDIA NVLink ecosystem partners
• Early interest from semiconductor and quantum-computing customers
• Kopin’s new Dallas Optics and Photonics Design Center
• The decision to bring OLED deposition manufacturing in-house in early 2027
• Management’s expectation that in-house OLED production could improve gross margins by at least 15 percentage points
• The company’s path toward GAAP profitability and positive free cash flow
• What management said about the potential for substantial revenue growth in 2027 and its longer-term path toward $100 million in annual revenue

We also give our reactions throughout the earnings call and discuss what we saw firsthand at Kopin’s technology demonstrations in Minneapolis and Boston, including the company’s soldier-vision technology, FPV products and broader push to bring critical display and optical manufacturing back to the United States.

The bigger story is that Kopin is increasingly moving beyond being viewed simply as a micro-display company. Micro-LED, Sentinel FPV, DarkWAVE, Neural I/O and its core defense products give the company exposure to several major secular growth markets at the same time — while management is beginning to show operating leverage underneath that growth.

Is $KOPN entering a fundamentally different stage of its growth story? We break down the earnings call, the technology, the opportunities, the risks and what investors should be watching next.

Hidden Gems Research × The Zero Hour Group
By Retail Investors, For Retail Investors

This content is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always conduct your own research and consider your individual financial situation and risk tolerance before making investment decisions.

#KOPN #Kopin #KopinCorporation #Stocks #SmallCaps #MicroLED #Photonics #AI #AIInfrastructure #Drones #FPV #DefenseStocks #DroneDominance #Investing #StockMarket #Semiconductors

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• Revenue: $16.7M, up 687% year-over-year and 106% quarter-over-quarter (Q1 2026 revenue was $8.1M)

• Gross margin: 34.7%, up from Q1 2026, below the 37.4% margin in Q2 2025

• Operating expenses: $13.6M, producing a GAAP loss from operations of $7.8M

• Net loss: $7.8M, or $0.16/share, compared to a net loss of $6.9M, or $0.32/share, in Q2 2025. Share count increased over the period, which reduced the per-share loss more than the dollar loss.

• Adjusted EBITDA loss: $0.4M, down from $1.6M in Q1 2026

• Cash: $229.6M as of June 30, 2026, up from $103.3M at year-end 2025, no debt

• Working capital: $367.5M

• Headcount: grew from 141 to 240 employees during the quarter, and reached 255+ by the call date

Non-cash stock compensation of $5.7M was the largest component of the GAAP loss. Management said it and senior leadership have shifted from restricted stock to options, which they expect to reduce this expense in 2027.

The largest customer accounted for approximately 42% of Q2 revenue. The top single product accounted for approximately 13%. Rotor Riot, the company’s retail arm, accounted for approximately 6% of revenue. Management said approximately 95% of Q2 revenue came from enterprise customers.

Capital Raise

UMAC raised $60M in Q2 at $30/share through block trades on its at-the-market (ATM) facility, which management calls a “staircase financing strategy.” The stock fell approximately 4% following the announcement. It remained up more than 100% year-to-date at the time of the call.

Two Operating Issues Disclosed

CEO Allan Evans described two problems that occurred during the quarter and are not reflected in the financial results.

1. Supply chain disruption. UMAC outgrew one of its electronics vendors mid-quarter and had to source replacement components while continuing to fulfill customer orders.

2. Motor quality issue. An intermittent defect on one motor SKU required the product, motor production, and customer teams to identify the root cause and build new quality-testing processes.

Evans said either issue alone could have caused a flat quarter, and that the team addressed both without slowing revenue growth.

Internal Targets

UMAC does not issue formal guidance. Evans provided internal targets on the call.

• Q3 2026: $12M-$14M in revenue. Management said the company will use the quarter to build infrastructure, including a new high-speed motor line, expanded facilities, and the Upgrade Energy integration, rather than maximize near-term sales.

• Q4 2026: $25M internal target, as Drone Dominance and counter-UAS orders begin to convert to revenue.

• 2027 total addressable market: approximately $250M, tied to the Drone Dominance program. Evans clarified this figure is a market-size estimate, not a revenue forecast, after an analyst referred to it as guidance.

Management expects gross margin to decline below 34.7% in Q3 as new products and processes are introduced, then recover in Q4. The company’s 40% margin target may not be reached until late 2026 or early 2027. Evans said 30% is roughly the margin floor while the company scales.

At the current facility footprint of approximately 70,000 square feet, Evans estimated manufacturing capacity at around $20M per quarter. UMAC is looking for an additional 100,000-200,000 square feet over the next nine months.

Demand Drivers

• Drone Dominance program (Department of War, $1.1B): Phase 2 finalists are expected to be selected by the end of August. More than 60,000 drones are expected to be ordered in the second half of 2026, mostly in Q4.

• Counter-UAS (cUAS): Evans said this market could exceed the FPV/small-drone market in size, citing recurring deployment needs at events such as FIFA and the Olympics.

• Named contracts referenced in the letter and call: a $90M counter-UAS order for Powerus, $500M counter-UAS orders each for AeroVironment and Perennial Autonomy, a $500M IDIQ for FPV drones for Neros, and an $820M Office of Strategic Capital loan for PDW (Performance Drone Works).

• FCC action: a ban on light-show and swarming drones took effect immediately, alongside a new ban on importing humanoid robots and robot vacuums from China. Management said this could expand the company’s addressable market into adjacent robotics categories.

• China export restrictions: China tightened drone-related export restrictions the day before the call. Evans cited this as an example of ongoing sourcing constraints, including electronics components, camera sensors, and magnets sourced from Japan.

Upgrade Energy Acquisition

The Upgrade Energy acquisition, which adds battery pack manufacturing, is expected to close by the end of Q3 2026. It will not contribute revenue until it closes. Evans said the company’s near-term focus is on integrating Upgrade Energy and scaling existing operations rather than pursuing additional acquisitions.

Q&A Highlights

• Pricing: Evans said UMAC could raise prices given current supply and demand conditions but is not doing so. The company is targeting approximately 40% gross margin while remaining price-competitive with imports from China, Taiwan, and Japan, citing long-term customer relationships as the priority.

• Working capital: Management said it models working capital at roughly one times forward-quarter revenue. Evans said non-equity financing options, including loans, are under consideration for 2027 scaling in addition to the ATM facility.

• OSC investment: An analyst asked for an update on a potential U.S. government investment in UMAC first reported in May. Evans said discussions with the Office of Strategic Capital are ongoing, with no further update.

• Drone delivery: Evans said food delivery, citing DoorDash’s Part 135 approval, will likely be the first use case to scale delivery drones. He does not expect meaningful component demand from delivery until late 2027, with deployment more likely in 2028, pending FAA Part 108 detect-and-avoid rules.

• Powerus: Evans confirmed Powerus is one of UMAC’s most advanced counter-UAS customer and the first to secure contracts in that category. He said the company expects more visibility into that relationship within one to two months, as Powerus finalizes its own supply chain.

Summary

Revenue grew 106% quarter-over-quarter to $16.7M, and adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed to $0.4M from $1.6M in Q1. Cash stood at $229.6M with no debt. Management disclosed two operating issues during the quarter, a vendor transition and a motor quality defect, and said both were resolved without slowing revenue growth. Internal targets call for $12M-$14M in Q3 revenue, described as a quarter focused on infrastructure buildout, followed by a $25M internal target in Q4. Margin is expected to dip in Q3 before recovering. Named demand drivers include the Drone Dominance program, counter-UAS contracts referenced for Powerus, AeroVironment, Perennial Autonomy, and PDW, and recent FCC import restrictions.

This is a summary of publicly available information from Unusual Machines’ Q2 2026 shareholder letter and the company’s live earnings call. Not investment advice.

In this episode of Zero Hour Today, JT and Benny examine Palantir’s explosive post-earnings move, the company’s accelerating commercial and government growth, its premium valuation, and the technical levels investors should watch next. They also discuss why chasing a stock after a massive green day can be dangerous—even when the long-term thesis remains strong.

The conversation expands into one of the most important lessons for high-beta investors: enthusiasm must be balanced with risk management. That means buying value when sentiment is weak, setting an exit strategy before emotions take over, using trailing stops or covered calls when appropriate, taking profits during strength, and staying hedged in a volatile market.

The team also covers several developments across the emerging drone and defense technology ecosystem, including:

• Ondas’ recent national-security leadership addition and the challenge of integrating its expanding portfolio of autonomous systems companies
• PowerUs and the potential of heavy-lift drones across defense, public safety, agriculture, firefighting, and commercial operations
• Low-altitude airspace management technology that could help unlock large-scale commercial drone adoption
• LightPath Technologies’ domestic optics, infrared imaging, night-vision, and long-range ISR opportunities
• Upcoming coverage of Safe Pro Group, Amprius, UMAC, Kopin, Performance Drone Works, and other companies on the Zero Hour watchlist

JT and Benny also preview Zero Hour Group’s exclusive interviews from the Commercial Drone Alliance Leadership Summit in Washington, D.C. These conversations explore drone diplomacy, airspace infrastructure, heavy-lift platforms, geopolitics, and the technologies shaping the next generation of American drone leadership.

Zero Hour Group’s mission is simple: give retail investors a seat at the table and direct access to the executives, researchers, innovators, and industry stakeholders shaping these emerging markets.

Visit: www.thezerohourgroup.com

Like, subscribe, and follow Zero Hour Group to stay in the loop.

This content is provided for educational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing discussed should be considered financial advice, an investment recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security.

#Palantir #PLTR #DroneStocks #DefenseTechnology #ArtificialIntelligence #StockMarket #RetailInvestors #Ondas #ONDS #PowerUs #LightPath #LPTH #ZeroHourGroup

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If you follow the HGR Substack closely you’ll know I am also a co-founder of . One of our main priorities is to travel the world to get you high quality, in-depth interviews with the leaders of these publicly traded companies to give you an edge usually saved for institutional investors behind closed doors. Retail traders deserve to be informed too!

Last week, we caught up with Powerus executives at the Commercial Drone Alliance’s Drone Leadership Summit in Washington, D.C. The theme this year was “Drone Dominance and Airspace Sovereignty: One Year Later.” The room was absolutely packed with the people actually writing the rules for U.S. airspace: FAA officials, Pentagon buyers, and the founders racing to fill the gap left by years of Chinese drone dominance.

We sat down with Ziv Marom, co-founder and CTO of Powerus and founder of Kaizen Aerospace, for what he told us was the company’s first-ever interview with a financial media outlet. It was also our first look at a company most retail investors haven’t heard of yet, despite the fact that two of the sitting president’s sons have money in it.

Im going to touch on who Powerus is, what Kaizen Aerospace actually builds, how the Trump family fits in, and why a company most people are unaware of just landed in the same wildfire competition as Anduril.

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Geothermal gets a fraction of the coverage nuclear does, even though both sell the same product to the same buyers: firm, carbon-free power that runs when solar and wind cannot. Nuclear has Microsoft restarting Three Mile Island and Amazon’s deal with Talen that I’ve already covered in my Nuclear Article (check it out if you haven’t). Geothermal has smaller contracts with the same class of buyer, moving just as fast, priced at roughly half the cost per megawatt-hour.

This piece covers what geothermal actually is, who is building it, private and public, and how the sector’s economics and risks compare to the reactor build-out everyone already knows about. I also cover two public tickers behind this trade, their contracts, their numbers, and what to watch next.

What Enhanced Geothermal Actually Is

Conventional geothermal has worked for a century, but only in places where heat, water, and permeable rock happen to sit together near the surface. Iceland runs most of its grid on it. Parts of Nevada and California, home to The Geysers geothermal field, have tapped it since the 1960s. Outside those pockets, the resource stayed locked underground.

Enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) change the equation. Companies drill wells, often horizontally, into hot rock thousands of feet down, fracture that rock to create permeability where none existed, and circulate fluid through it to carry heat to the surface and spin a turbine. The leading EGS developers grew directly out of the shale industry, and the drilling techniques they use, horizontal wells, hydraulic fracturing, fiber-optic downhole sensing, are borrowed wholesale from a decade of U.S. oil and gas production. The pitch to a utility or a data center operator is simple: unlike solar and wind, an EGS plant produces electricity around the clock regardless of weather, putting it in the same “firm power” category nuclear occupies.

The U.S. currently has about 4 gigawatts of geothermal capacity installed, almost all of it conventional. The Department of Energy’s Enhanced Geothermal Shot initiative targets a 20-fold increase, to 90 gigawatts by 2050, enough to supply roughly 12% of U.S. electricity demand, if EGS costs fall the way the agency projects.

Who Is Building It

Most of the next-generation geothermal field is private which puts us in an interesting position as investors, especially when taking diversification into account. Sage Geosystems has raised $114 million, takes a brownfield approach that builds onto existing plant infrastructure rather than drilling greenfield sites, and holds a 150-megawatt power purchase agreement with Meta. XGS Energy has raised $57 million and signed its own 150-megawatt Meta deal in New Mexico, using a proprietary mineral additive it says increases heat extraction from a well by 30% to 50%. Eavor, a Canadian company that has raised $569 million, runs a closed-loop system that pipes fluid through a sealed underground loop rather than fracturing rock. It became the first company to deliver electricity to a commercial grid from a fully closed-loop geothermal plant in late 2025. Quaise Energy, with $91 million raised, is developing millimeter-wave drilling meant to reach ultra-deep, ultra-hot rock anywhere on earth rather than relying on favorable geology, the most exotic bet in the sector. Zanskar, which raised $115 million in a January 2026 Series C on top of an earlier $30 million round, uses AI to find and target drilling sites faster and cheaper than traditional exploration. None of these five trade publicly yet but are on my radar for IPOs.

Two public companies anchor the other side of the sector that I’ve been keeping an eye on. One is a decades-old geothermal operator that has run conventional plants profitably for years. It posted revenue of $403.9 million in its most recent quarter, up 75.8% year over year, with adjusted earnings per share nearly doubling as its energy storage segment grew 153.1%. The stock has rallied more than 30% over the past three months. In February, the company signed a 15-year power purchase agreement with a major hyperscaler for up to 150 megawatts, and in June it took an equity stake in one of the private EGS developers above while licensing that company’s drilling technology, a bet that its existing plants and grid connections can host next-generation tech rather than compete against it.

The other is a pre-revenue growth pick (which we love hear at Hidden Gems Research) that priced its IPO at $27 a share in May 2026, the largest clean-energy IPO in recent memory, and raised $1.89 billion. Shares opened near $35, hit an all-time high of $42.65 within weeks, then settled into the mid-$20s, a market cap near $7.5 billion built almost entirely on contracts and construction milestones rather than revenue. The company holds 658 megawatts of binding power purchase agreements, worth an estimated $7.2 billion over their contract lives, plus a 3-gigawatt framework agreement with the same class of hyperscaler buyer signing deals across the sector. Its flagship U.S. project is under construction now, targeting first power before the end of 2026. Until that power flows, the company remains a construction story: a $31.8 million net loss last quarter against $172.8 million in capital spending, with roughly $1.2 billion more in capex guided through early 2027.

Geothermal vs. Nuclear: The Case For Geothermal

Lazard’s most recent levelized cost of energy analysis puts geothermal at $61 to $102 per megawatt-hour and nuclear at $141 to $221 per megawatt-hour, roughly double. Even without subsidies, geothermal projects run about $119 per megawatt-hour against nuclear’s approximately $140. The Department of Energy’s own liftoff analysis expects next-generation geothermal to reach $60 to $70 per megawatt-hour by 2030, on a path toward its $45 target by 2035.

The construction risk gap is just as wide. Georgia’s Vogtle nuclear expansion, the only new U.S. reactor built in decades, ballooned from an initial $14 billion estimate to somewhere between $25 billion and $37 billion and took years longer than planned. One industry analysis found that 2,200 megawatts of geothermal capacity would have cost about $9 billion, less than half of Vogtle’s price tag for a comparable amount of firm power. Nuclear construction has a documented pattern of this: plants started after 1970 overran their initial cost estimates by an average of 241%. Geothermal wells get drilled one at a time using equipment and crews the oil and gas industry has run for decades, so a delay or a bad well sets a project back by weeks instead of months or even years. Geothermal also skips nuclear’s regulatory runway. There is no NRC licensing process, no decade-long environmental review, and no spent fuel to manage. And because EGS projects scale by drilling additional wells rather than building a second reactor, a developer can add capacity in stages instead of committing billions before any power ships.

Geothermal vs. Nuclear: The Risks I See

The sector’s flagship U.S. project is the first real test of whether EGS is repeatable infrastructure or a boutique product, and nobody will know until it reaches first power before the end of this year whether it performs at the scale its contracts assume. The DOE’s $45-per-megawatt-hour 2035 target and the leading pure-play’s own $100 to $130 per megawatt-hour long-term pricing goal are targets the industry has to hit with past results being less impactful.

Geography is also still relavent even with EGS. The best hot rock in the U.S. sits concentrated in the West, Utah and Nevada especially, which is why the current flagship projects sit there rather than closer to East Coast data center demand. Quaise’s millimeter-wave approach is the one technology aiming to make location irrelevant, but it still remains as the earliest-stage bet in the sector leading analysts to be weary on the deliverables.

Capital intensity is the risk investors will feel first. Every geothermal developer, public or private, spends heavily before a well produces a dollar of revenue, and the leading pure-play’s roughly $1.2 billion capex guide through early 2027 sits on top of an already-large IPO raise. Any slip in construction timelines or in the pace of new power purchase agreements raises the odds of dilution or a funding gap somewhere in the sector.

Why Nuclear Still Gets the Bigger Headlines

Geothermal’s underdog status has less to do with the technology and more to do with the story built around it. Nuclear has 70 years of grid operating history behind it; the newest geothermal flagship plants do not produce power until later this year. Nuclear also carries a coordinated policy push, SMR-specific legislation, DOE loan programs, and a wave of high-profile startups, while geothermal’s leading voices are mostly ex-shale engineers running a quieter, well-by-well buildout that produces smaller headline numbers even as it reuses a mature drilling supply chain. Both sectors are chasing the same AI-driven demand for firm power, but nuclear’s data center deals landed in the news well before geothermal’s hyperscaler commitments caught similar attention.

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THE WATCHLIST RUNDOWN: SEVEN NAMES IN PLAY, FOUR MORE LOADING

The falling knife found a floor. Nine dollars broke, and the five-dollar bottom I was watching for never came. Buyers stepped in near $6.50 instead and built a shelf between $6 and $7. The stock holds a 4% gain on a red market day. Accumulation under $10 stays the play.

Higher highs, higher lows, and a consistent high timeframe trendline trendline the stock hasn’t broken once. Value matters more here than momentum. Cash-secured puts around $15 work, but the real zone sits between $12 and $14. A government contract lands at some point, and when it does, $35 comes back into view. Until then, patience wins.

Up about 240% year to date, from $9 to $24, then it dropped hard. Support broke at $15 and held at $9.50 on heavy buying. This is the highest-conviction setup in the group, a run back toward $20. Cash-secured puts here make sense even if $8 prints first. The gap between $8 and $9.50 is small.

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Here’s a Summary of what we talked about!

Market action: Small-cap defense and drone names ran green across the board this morning. $ONDS gained 12% and later touched nearly 15%, tapping a new high near $7.87. $UMAC gained 10%. $KOPN gained 7.5%. $LTRX gained roughly 8%. $LPTH gained 16% with no company news behind it. $SPAI added 1.6%. JT called it a macro rotation day after months of selling across the defense sector.

$ONDS short squeeze thesis: JT laid out the short mechanics. Ondas carries nearly 40% short interest on its float. The annual borrow cost sits at 12.5%. JT argued shorts face rising risk and rising cost at the same time, with earnings due in a couple weeks. He referenced Ondas CEO Eric Brock’s comments at the May shareholder meeting, where Brock attributed the short interest to hedging and trading flow rather than company fundamentals.

Kramer riff: JT and Benny joked about fading Jim Kramer’s calls. Benny told his own Palantir story: he bought after Kramer panned the stock in 2024, rode it from $8 to over $120, sold, then watched it climb to $200.

Anduril article launch: Zero Hour Group published a new Anduril piece on X and Substack. The article traces Anduril from a 2017 startup to a $60 billion-plus valuation, covers the roughly $20 billion Army Fury contract, details submersible programs like Ghost Shark and Copperhead, breaks down the Lattice software platform, and profiles the new 5-million-square-foot Arsenal One facility in Ohio, which Anduril expects to staff with 4,000 workers. Benny and JT discussed a Kopin-Anduril collaboration on helmet visor and night-vision tech, and noted a teased Anduril-Archer partnership that sent $ACHR up over 20%.

Golden Dome angle: JT pegged the Golden Dome opportunity at $1.2 trillion or more over 20 years, with a near-term market around $180 billion. He named $LPTH as a beneficiary through its satellite IR business and $ONDS as a candidate through its ISR layer.

Guest moment: Viewer Aaron flagged $AMPG (AmpliTech Group), trading near $6.30 and covered by one analyst with a strong buy rating. JT and Benny said they would look into the name for possible ZHG coverage.

Schedule recap: JT confirmed Sunday Night Live as the flagship show and Zero Hour Today as the new Tuesday 10am CST segment, with additional streams triggered by breaking news on covered tickers.

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