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I am excited to announce my 28 page Futures Trading Guide is now available! This 9 chapter thesis breaks down the basics of futures trading, how it works, and how I execute the strategy that turned me profitable. I’ve also included a host of knowledgeable videos and infographics that helped me learn when I first started. I hope to see some of you on the day trading livestreams I plan to start via Substack soon so you can see the strategy executed in real time! This will also give me a better platform for answering your questions. Have a great week in the market!

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More to come!

There’s a shift happening right now that a majority of the market hasn’t priced in. AI is in a cycle of scaling and decentralizing from traditional platforms. It’s moving off the cloud and onto devices. Into drones, robots, and real-world systems that need to think and act instantly. This is edge AI. It’s on the rise and becoming one of the most important layers in the next phase of technological adoption. While most investors are focused on the obvious winners - , , and other hyperscalers - there’s a smaller, less visible layer underneath that actually enables all of it. Lets get into my pick for Small cap Edge AI.

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The Ondas’ Story Is Still In It’s Prologue

On paper, completely blew earnings out of the water, with over 600% YoY growth and massive new revenue targets. What also stood out was the fact that Ondas is growing into a system of systems solution provider of an entire autonomous stack for air and ground solutions at the perfect time when drones are at the top of every headline. Revenue is ramping, backlog is growing, margins are improving, and management is clearly trying to use its balance sheet to build a much larger multi-domain business before the broader market fully appreciates what is happening. All of this in the last 3 months. The kicker? The stock is currently cheaper than it was to start the year making it one of my primary acquisition targets.

Financials

Ondas reported Q4 revenue of $30.1 million, up sharply year over year, while full-year 2025 revenue came in at $50.7 million. More importantly, the company raised its 2026 revenue target to at least $375 million and established a Q1 2026 revenue target of $38 to $40 million. Management said their cash position stood at roughly $1.5 billion, with shareholder equity climbing to about $441 million from roughly $17 million the year before. The company also emphasized that the January 2026 financing was led by a large institutional investor and that it is pursuing broader index inclusion, including the Russell 2000. While they are flush with cash, they are not using it for aquisitions. The Ondas acquisition strategy has mainly revolved around share offerings which is scary for many investors due to dilution risk. While I agree that dilution is never what you want to see, the fact that they are keeping their balance sheet this healthy means they have a lot more flexibility than any other company at their market cap in the sector giving them options. This is going to allow them to survive in many uncomfortable market spaces and edge out competitors. It is a good thing long-term.

Key Acquisitions

One of the big takeaways was CEO, Eric Brock, laying out an aggressive acquisition-driven growth plan, which was a huge reason why the 2026 target jumped so dramatically. Across the recently announced deals, Ondas said it expects roughly $230 million of 2026 revenue contribution (from acquisitions), with key additions including Mistral, BIRD, Rotron, INDO Earth Moving, and World View. The company also highlighted that these acquisitions bring in revenue, but also manufacturing capability, customer relationships, geographic access, new end markets, and, in some cases, prime contractor exposure (Mistral).

BIRD looks especially important near term because it brings mission-proven airborne missile protection and ISR technology already deployed across more than 700 aircraft and 40+ aircraft types. This gives Ondas exposure to a higher-value protection layer and more durable defense program budgets, which should help both revenue quality and margin profile over time.

Mistral, my favorite aquisition to date, is central to the U.S. expansion thesis. Management described it as a direct accelerant for the Ondas’ U.S. market push because it adds manufacturing and program execution capability while also expanding access to larger defense programs due to their clearance. Mistral has seen long-term success in Pentagon lobbying, shown recently with their $1 billion dollar Uvision contract they helped broker for loitering munitions. This relationship is key for Ondas’ success domestically.

Rotron was another big one and expands the strike and propulsion side of the platform, particularly as NATO and allied governments increasingly prioritize low-cost, autonomous systems. Rotron adds another layer of system stacking with drones capable of carrying other drones by air, reducing the need for human piloted air/ground transport thats risky and expensive. They also provide a window into long-range loitering munition solutions, something Ondas was lacking before their Mistral acquisition.

INDO Earth Moving was another acquisition, more niche in my eyes. It gives Ondas an entry point into military engineering vehicles and another layer of ground capability. My thought is they will use this business in tandem with their demining capabilities through 4M defense and their partnership with . Demining is largely untapped as a market and is valued at over $10 Billion dollars. One of the many revenue sources Ondas is targeting.

The key takeaway is every acquisition since 2025 has had meaning and accomplished something where the business was lacking. As an investor, this is key. I need to know that management is working in the shareholders best interest long-term. These acquisitions all help to secure the final vision of what plans to be - a defense prime and municipal infrastructure giant.

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New Partnerships

World View and Palantir

If there is one section of the Ondas story that has the potential to capture the market’s imagination, it is probably the combination of World View + Palantir + Ondas. Ondas’ March partnership with World View was already interesting because it added the stratospheric sensing layer to the company’s broader ISR vision. The follow-up partnership with Palantir made the strategic direction much clearer. The companies said they are working to build AI-enabled, multi-domain ISR capabilities that connect stratospheric, aerial, and land-based systems into a more unified command-and-control and intelligence framework. World View’s Stratollite platform is designed to operate in the stratosphere for long-duration sensing missions, filling the gap between satellites and conventional aircraft. Palantir’s AIP, Warp Speed, and related operational tools are meant to help scale production, mission planning, and edge intelligence for those missions. Ondas’ role is to connect that stratospheric layer with its growing autonomous aerial, ground, and counter-drone portfolio. This is still early, and investors should treat it that way. But if this ecosystem begins converting into real programs, it could become one of the most differentiated parts of the Ondas narrative. It moves the company closer to being viewed as an integrated autonomy and ISR platform with potential entries into Golden Dome contracts rather than just a drone and C-UAS focused stock.

ONBERG

Another underappreciated piece of this story is the ONBERG joint venture with Heidelberg. Ondas and Heidelberg said ONBERG is intended to become a European one-stop shop for autonomous drone defense systems, with an initial focus on Germany and Ukraine. European defense buyers increasingly want sovereign-aligned production, local support, and regional industrial capacity. Ondas is trying to position ONBERG as the answer to that requirement. This matters because Europe is entering a growth cycle - spending more on defense; it is also becoming more focused on who builds, services, and supports those systems locally due to current geo-political upheaval surrounding NATO. If ONBERG scales the way management hopes, it could give Ondas a meaningful foothold in one of the most important defense growth markets outside the United States. Eric also noted that ONBERG’s potential upside is not yet included in current revenue guidance, which leaves room for future surprises if execution is strong and we already know Germany likes their tech, with C-UAS orders already active accross airports in the region.

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The Pathway to Profitability

Ondas is not a profitability story today - you are buying into the idea of what could be. The company posted a large net loss, though management emphasized that $82.2 million of the quarterly impact came from a non-cash warrant revaluation tied to prior financing relieving worries. That accounting charge does not reflect the underlying operations of the business, but it will likely continue to create noise in reported GAAP earnings. What matters more is the timeline leadership laid out for EBITDA progression. Ondas said it expects its product companies to become EBITDA positive in Q3 2026, OAS in Q3 2027, and Ondas overall in Q1 2028, with the key possibility that these milestones could be pulled forward as scale improves. That timeline will ultimately depend on execution, integration, and whether the company can continue to convert backlog and demand into high-quality revenue. But it at least gives investors a framework for how management sees the operating leverage building from here.

Conclusion

Overall, posted a very strong quarter, over tripling their initial revenue target for 2026 and acquiring some truly transformational companies. The balance sheet is now large enough to matter and is one of the biggest tailwinds. The combination of BIRD, Mistral, ONBERG, World View, and Palantir gives Ondas one of the more ambitious multi-domain autonomy narratives in the small-cap market right now and I believe it is grossly undervalued. Regardless of what I believe, the market will still want proof. It will want to see the Q1 revenue show up, the acquisitions integrate smoothly, and the backlog continue to climb. But after this report, it is getting harder to argue that Ondas is just another speculative drone name. Leadership is building a system of systems for drones akin to nothing we have seen at this scale, and 2026 may be the year that story starts showing up in a much bigger way.

Disclosure

The information provided in this publication is for educational and informational purposes only. Nothing in this content should be interpreted as a recommendation, solicitation, or offer to buy or sell any security. I do not provide personalized investment advice or individualized recommendations. All examples, tickers, scenarios, and analyses are strictly for general educational discussion.

The views expressed are my own and do not represent the views, policies, or recommendations of any employer, broker-dealer, or affiliate. Any securities referenced are used solely as case studies to demonstrate research methods and analysis frameworks.

Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. You are solely responsible for your own investment decisions. Consult a licensed financial professional for personalized guidance.

Most small cap drone names fall into one of two buckets: generic end-product resellers or concept technology with no ability to scale their idea into generating meaningful revenue. This penny stock drone ticker doesn’t fall into either category and is shaping up for a breakout year. Over the last 12 to 18 months, this micro cap has been repositioning itself into something far more compelling - a vertically integrated aerial intelligence platform spanning services, training, autonomy, software, and defense related systems. This shift is happening at a time when global defense budgets are pivoting toward low-cost drone systems and counter-UAS infrastructure is becoming essential. We are also seeing regulated supply chains being prioritized across North America and NATO allies. This shift is starting to be picked up at the retail level as well. Veteran investors are beginning to frame the company as an “early stage winner” similar to past drone runners like and , pointing to its sub-$1 price and growing defense exposure as reasons it could re-rate if contracts materialize. The ticker is…

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Since 2020, there’s been an endless supply of small caps promising to make a difference in the AI, drone, and defense space. The truth is, few actually make it out of the speculative phase into profitability. This company has shown tangible signs of government interest with real contracts and rapid delivery on orders. They’re also projecting over 500% YoY Q1 2026 revenue growth and a stock price under $5 combined with a low float. Lets get into the pick, what they do, why I like them, and who their partners are.

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Amprius Technologies just delivered one of the most important quarters in the company’s history. The Q4 2025 earnings report confirmed that Amprius is transitioning from a technology validation small cap into a scaling battery manufacturer, with demand accelerating across drones, aerospace, and defense applications. We also know there is heightened interest for their product in the domestic space at the height of American drone infrastructure ramp-up. With record revenue, improving margins, and strong 2026 guidance, the company appears to be entering a hypergrowth commercialization phase that investors may be able to benefit from.

Q4 2025 Financial Results

Amprius reported record quarterly results by beating both revenue and EPS expectations. Revenue came in at $25 million, highlighting staggering YoY growth of +137% and QoQ growth of +18%. Revenue also beat consensus expectations by roughly $2.3M, highlighting accelerating demand for the company’s battery technology. EPS came in with a surprise beat as well. The quarter also marked an operational milestone with Amprius achieving its first positive quarterly adjusted EBITDA, showcasing the early benefits of scaling production.

Full Year 2025 Performance

The broader story for Amprius in 2025 was hypergrowth. Gross annual revenue came in at $73 million, showcasing a +202% YoY change with over a third of that coming in the 4th quarter. I believe the exponential growth showcases the fact the company is trending in the right direction for an explosive 2026 with new production avenues and partnerships adding a compounding effect. The company did report a GAAP net loss of $24.4 million in Q4, largely driven by a $22.5M impairment charge from the closure of a Colorado facility which distorts the underlying profitability trend but is not concerning in the broader thesis. Excluding one-time items, operating performance improved significantly as the company began benefiting from scale.

2026 Guidance

Management issued very strong forward guidance, reinforcing the bull case. They expect 2026 revenue of at least $125 million and adjusted positive EBITDA of $4 million. On the flip side, net loss is expected to be around $8 million. This implies roughly 70% revenue growth in 2026 and continued progress toward profitability. Management also highlighted that the company is now pursuing a capital-light manufacturing model, leveraging industry partners and government incentives to scale production more efficiently leading to potential stock appreciation.

Manufacturing Expansion

The most important question to ask when looking into continued revenue expansion is: can scale production? The company is now taking several steps to address that challenge. In the last few months ther’’s been several key developments on this topic. The first being a new U.S. manufacturing partner in Nanotech Energy. This partnership opens doors for easier runways in the NDAA regulated component procurement space for U.S. entities seeking powerful Amprius batteries in drone and defense technology.

They’ve also expanded production partners in South Korea - bringing their total partnerships there to 3. This has culminated in the achievement of production getting underway overseas back in September 2025. The global manufacturing network this created allows Amprius to scale production while avoiding heavy capital expenditures. On top of that it helps create that NDAA-compliant battery supply chain I mentioned earlier, paving the way for increased probability of securing large defense and government contracts.

Technology Advantage: Silicon Anode Batteries

Amprius differentiates itself through its silicon anode lithium-ion battery technology. Compared to conventional lithium-ion batteries, silicon anode cells deliver higher energy density, higher capacity, and longer flight endurance for drones and aircraft. These batteries are already among the highest energy density, commercially available cells enabling applications where weight and endurance are critical. Key use cases include: military drones, high-altitude UAVs, electric aviation, satellite systems, and robotics/autonomous platforms. This is being reinforced through the fact some competitors in the drone dominance gauntlet are using their batteries in their systems already. Exciting stuff!

Major Tailwinds

Drone Warfare & UAV Growth

Battery performance is one of the most important constraints for drones. Batteries like Amprius’s provide higher energy density directly increases flight time, range, and payload security. As defense spending shifts toward unmanned systems, high-performance battery suppliers become critical infrastructure. stands to gain immensely as the industry is looking to grow with analysts expecting a 10x increase on drone spending over the next 10 years.

Electric Aviation

More so than drones, electric aircraft require extremely high energy density batteries. Amprius’s technology roadmap is targeting energy densities that could enable practical electric aviation platforms, an area attracting massive investment. If you follow Hidden Gems closely, you’ll know that EVTOL is also on the horizon with these vehicles requiring a massive amount of high quality power - another untapped potential market for .

Defense Supply Chain Localization

Due to international security concerns the U.S. government is pushing for NDAA-compliant supply chains for critical technologies such as batteries. Companies capable of producing domestically compliant components could see significant demand from defense programs. We know is headed into this space but the market has plenty of room before saturation occurs. Amprius could fill a large portion of this gap and potentially partner with one of our favorite picks if they continue to show promise.

Aerospace and Space

Amprius batteries are already used in applications like satellites and aerospace platforms. These industries value performance over cost, which plays directly into Amprius’s strengths and gives them the opportunity for a few, huge revenue generating long-term projects.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is strong. Amprius ended 2025 with ~$90.5 million in cash and no debt. This gives the company a runway to continue scaling production while investing in new manufacturing capacity. As margins increase, contracts inflow, and production ramps I expect more and more cash to be added to the balance sheet in the long-term. In the short term cash will be a high-demand asset leveraged along with protentional share offerings though the former would be preferable to investors. Expect some volatility in this regard where stock price is concerned.

The Big Picture

Amprius is moving from a high-risk small cap to a quality, commercial battery supplier. The Q4 earnings report showed a handful of major green flags: triple-digit revenue growth, improving margins, positive EBITDA, and aggressive 2026 growth guidance. If management executes on manufacturing expansion and demand continues growing across drones, aerospace, and defense, Amprius could become one of the key battery suppliers powering the next generation of unmanned and autonomous systems. In a world where battery performance directly determines mission capability, Amprius is positioning itself as a critical picks-and-shovels provider in the electrification and autonomy revolution, making it a perfect fit for the Gem Vault. I think a healthy pullback is in order but I plan to increase my holdings when we dip closer to $15.

Disclosure

The information provided in this publication is for educational and informational purposes only. Nothing in this content should be interpreted as a recommendation, solicitation, or offer to buy or sell any security. I do not provide personalized investment advice or individualized recommendations. All examples, tickers, scenarios, and analyses are strictly for general educational discussion.

The views expressed are my own and do not represent the views, policies, or recommendations of any employer, broker-dealer, or affiliate. Any securities referenced are used solely as case studies to demonstrate research methods and analysis frameworks.

Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. You are solely responsible for your own investment decisions. Consult a licensed financial professional for personalized guidance.

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Unusual Machines reported Q4 2025 earnings and had their quarterly call this week to give an overview of their transformative year. The company is rapidly evolving into a U.S.-based drone component manufacturer targeting what it believes is a major domestic supply chain gap across motors, headsets, batteries, and cameras. The headline numbers were strong and the continuous delivery on increased quarterly revenue continues to impress. On top of this I think the bigger story is the shift in how orders are being solicited, filled, and by who. The enterprise revenue mix surged, manufacturing capacity ramped, and the balance sheet was massively strengthened to support what management believes will be a multi-year domestic drone component buildout. If you’re not excited yet you should be. This company is going to be a completely different beast by 2030!

Key Takeaways

Revenue growth remained strong. generated approximately $11.2 million in 2025 revenue, up 101% year over year, while Q4 revenue came in at roughly $4.9 million, up 133% sequentially. This marked the company’s seventh straight quarter of record revenue. The business mix also changed materially. Enterprise revenue went from 31% in Q1 to 81% in Q4, showing how quickly the company is shifting away from being primarily an online drone retail platform and toward becoming a scaled component supplier for enterprise and defense-adjacent customers. Typically enterprise transactions are proceeded by larger, follow-up orders leading to massive, long-term revenue growth.

Margins improved, but their could be a mix of near-term pressure. Gross margin improved from 24% in Q1 to about 36% in Q4, with full-year gross margin at 35%. Taking that into account, management expects gross margin volatility and likely weakness in Q1-Q2 2026 as new hires and process inefficiencies woes move through cost of goods before scale benefits fully show up. This could cause share price fluctuation at next earnings if guidance comes in weaker than expected. With the stock being up over 50% YTD future volatility is definitely something to consider when to take profit.

We also know the balance sheet is looking very impressive. The company raised $157.8 million in equity during 2025 and ended the year with roughly $103 million in cash, more than $157 million in net working capital, and zero debt! That gives the cash needed to aggressively build inventory, expand production, and potentially pursue acquisitions. The CEO, Allan Evans, also stated they see a major domestic supply opportunity which is in line with my drone dominance thesis. UMAC believes recent regulatory and procurement developments have created a supply-constrained U.S. drone market, with domestic demand expected to exceed supply through 2026 and into 2027. This is due to increased foreign restrictions and a focus on domestic production of parts rather than a reliance on China, the worlds current drone leader.

Financial Highlights

Revenue

• FY2025 Revenue: ~$11.2M

• YoY Growth: 101%

• Q4 2025 Revenue: ~$4.9M

• Sequential Growth: 133%

This is a small revenue base, but the growth rate and mix shift are what matter most here. The company is clearly trying to position itself early before larger component volumes hit. We now have 7 consecutive quarters of revenue growth. I expect this figure to climb sharply as U.S. government drone orders begin to be filled.

Gross Margin

• Q1 2025: 24%

• Q4 2025: ~36%

• FY2025: 35%

Q4 margin came in above management’s internal expectations, which is encouraging. Still, Allan Evans was very direct that investors should expect the weakest gross margins in Q1-Q2 2026 as the company digests a massive operational ramp.

Operating Expenses

• 2025 OpEx: $29M

• 2024 OpEx: $18.5M

The increase was driven by $15.6M in non-cash stock compensation, hiring, and headcount ramp, facility expansion, systems investments, and scaling costs which are all in line with the thesis. We need early expansion to capitalize on long term growth objectives. If they can become the day one supplier for drone companies winning DoD contracts, I would expect repeat business.

Balance Sheet

• Cash: $103M

• Inventory + prepaid inventory: $15M+

• Debt: None

That cash position is one of the biggest takeaways from the quarter. Unusual Machines now has the balance sheet to build out aggressively into anticipated demand. We already know that they are pre-prepping component orders for imminent orders. Its risky but gives them an advantage over the competition who are waiting for tickets to hit the books.

The Enterprise Shift

This was one of the most important parts of the earnings call that peaked my interest. Unusual Machines is becoming an enterprise powerhouse looking to provide production for large companies rather than individual buyers. Over 2025, the company increasingly became an enterprise-focused component provider, with enterprise mix climbing each quarter from 31% in Q1 to 81% in Q4, a dramatic change in only a years time. Management repeatedly emphasized that 2025 was the year where the company transitioned from an online retail store into a drone parts producer and enterprise sales business. Retail still matters, but mainly as a sales funnel where customers can buy parts for R&D before scaling into larger production orders. Id expect them to continue some retail relations through their subsidiaries and connections with the Drone Nerds Storefront. The real money will come from enterprise and large contractors.

The U.S. Drone Component Market Focus

Unusual Machines believes this is being driven by two major forces and I concur. The first being foreign competition is being pushed out due to increased regulations by the FCC. T-Motors being added to the Entity Covered List in 2025, tariff pressure on imports, and the ban on new licenses for foreign-made drones and drone parts, that went into effect in late December 2025, are all catalysts supporting this domestic drone movement. Evans said this created a “major vacuum across both consumer and enterprise markets” which checks out when viewing the situation from a macro perspective.

Government demand is also accelerating. It is easy to see that they will provide the fuel for future demand and growing Pentagon interest in low-cost drones and domestic supply chain readiness, especially through programs like SRR, PBAS, and Drone Dominance. According to Evans, the U.S. small-drone market is about $10 billion annually, implying a $3B-$5B addressable market for parts if domestic sourcing requirements continue tightening. It needs to be noted that there are very few domestic companies that can source this component demand. is a prime in the FPV headset and motor component space. They are the play.

Drone Dominance Will Be A Major Catalyst

This was another focal point on the call. The Department of Defense plans to buy 90,000 low-cost drones in 2026 and an additional 250,000 drones in 2027 which could provide a $90 and $250 million component order infusion for 2026 and 2027 respectively. Those are immense numbers relative to UMAC’s current revenue base and market cap. If they could capture even 25% of that it would be a game changer. currently has about $12 million in outstanding purchase orders with $9 million of that tied to programs outside Drone Dominance. Most importantly, more than half of the first 11 announced Drone Dominance winners are already customers “in some form or fashion.” Relationships are everything and the company is already layering in initial deals behind the scenes.

Production Ramp Is The Next Big Test

The strategy only works if the company can actually manufacture at scale and deliver on time. Here’s where things stand: Motor production started in November with current run rate at 15,000 motors per month. Second and third shifts have been added at the massive motor factory to boot. A second shift was also added at the flexible production facility meaning they are working around the clock to meet fresh demand on the cusp of being needed. There is an ongoing innitiative to start an automated motor line that should be ready in the second half of 2026 which could produce over 100,000 motors a month at full capacity, far exceeding current production.

We also have Fat Shark FPV headsets starting to take off. with the first U.S.-made units produced in January. They are currently targeting 100 headsets per shift per day by April. Battery packs and cameras are also on the docket with plans for production start in the second half of 2026 as well. It’s exciting to watch become the one stop shop for all drone component needs.

Summary

This was a very important quarter for Unusual Machines because it showed the early shape of a company trying to become a real domestic picks-and-shovels supplier for the U.S. drone market. We have major green flags in the rapidly rising enterprise mix, stark balance sheet improvement, expanding production footprint and automation, aggressive hiring, and a market backdrop that will genuinely favor U.S.-based component suppliers.

The biggest question now is simple: can they execute the ramp to fill demand orders?

If UMAC can scale motors, headsets, batteries, and cameras while maintaining customer relationships and delivering into programs like Drone Dominance, the current revenue base could end up looking tiny in hindsight and the gains from share appreciation massive. This is still an execution story first. The balance sheet gives them room. The market gives them opportunity. Now they have to prove they can turn that into consistent production and revenue scale. My bet is that they can.

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Disclaimer

The information provided in this publication is for educational and informational purposes only. Nothing in this content should be interpreted as a recommendation, solicitation, or offer to buy or sell any security. I do not provide personalized investment advice or individualized recommendations. All examples, tickers, scenarios, and analyses are strictly for general educational discussion.

The views expressed are my own and do not represent the views, policies, or recommendations of any employer, broker-dealer, or affiliate. Any securities referenced are used solely as case studies to demonstrate research methods and analysis frameworks.

Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. You are solely responsible for your own investment decisions. Consult a licensed financial professional for personalized guidance.