$ONDS Q3 2025 Full Earnings Breakdown and Key Takeaways
The Potential for 500 million in 2026 Revenue
Alright $ONDS investors, lurkers, and friends here’s your required reading before bed try not get too excited (I won’t blame you if you do it’s good stuff). All of the points are relevant but I think #1 is the biggest by far. It took me awhile to write this so if you read the whole thing I’d appreciate it - it’s for your benefit after all!
1. 2025 revenue target increased to at least $36 million; establishing preliminary revenue target of at least $110 million for 2026. So we got our guidance raised to 110 million for 2026 which is great but if you were paying attention to the earnings call you’d notice that they snuck something in there - the potential for 500 million in revenue for 2026 dependent on mergers and acquisitions. If this happens that is nearly 5x the current guidance - insanity considering revenue was only in the 10s of millions this year. They are playing it conservatively and I don’t think they would put that bullet point on there unless they thought it was possible. If they even get 200 or 300 million in earnings the projections will sky rocket. I don’t toss this around lightly but we could be looking at the $PLTR of the drone trend.
2. Entered into a definitive agreement with Sentrycs, an Israeli counter-UAS company specializing in RF based drone detection, identification, and mitigation technologies. We believe Sentrycs’ systems will provide passive, signal-intelligence-driven protection against intruder drones, complementing Iron Drone Raider and expanding OAS’ layered counter-UAS architecture across detection, interception, and electronic defense. This was truly the cherry on top for 2025. We needed a software solution for CUAS tech to bundle with the Iron Drone Raider. If you check airobotics linked in you’ll see one of their employees mentioned they are selling CUAS bundles in association with other companies for the World Cup - a 1 billion dollar opportunity. Adding Sentrycs to the mix makes them an extremely strong contender to win a portion of that contract. Not to mention the one they are winning with DHS.
3. Record quarterly revenue of $10.1 million in Q3; a more than 6-fold increase YoY and 60% growth QoQ 4. With a pro-forma cash balance of $840.4 million, we believe Ondas has one of the strongest balance sheets in the industry. Ive never seen a company this small with a balance sheet like this. Nearly a billion dollars in firepower but they’d need that to produce 500 million in revenue with M and A which is why I believe it’s possible.
4. OAS backlog reached $22.2 million as of September 30, 2025, up from $20.7 million at the end of Q2, reflecting continued global demand for the Optimus and Iron Drone platforms. I expect this to grow further with the Sentrycs acquisition and I believe it will positively effect $UMAC and $LPTH. Two positions of mine that are beat down but will recover with an $ONDS surge.
5. Secured GreenUAS Cleared List certification for the Optimus drone, positioning the system for Department of War Blue List inclusion as a trusted, NDAA-compliant autonomous platform. This is obviously big and we will see ourselves added to the blue UAS list for Optimus and iron drone systems though it may be in 2026
6. Appointed Maj. Gen. (Ret.) Yoav Har-Even, former CEO of Rafael Advanced Defense Systems, to the OAS Advisory Board, adding exceptional global defense leadership and operational experience to guide the scaling of OAS operations and support the Company’s strategic acquisition program. Rafael made the iron dome. Expect $ONDS to be involved in the US Golden Dome with advisors like this.
7. Iron Drone Raider was selected by Securiton Germany, a leading integration partner to the German Armed Forces and other critical security operators, following successful system integration and demonstrations conducted in Germany by Airobotics. The joint demonstrations showcased Iron Drone’s advanced counter-UAS capabilities and seamless interoperability within Securiton’s defense and security frameworks. Proof of concept. I expect $ONDS contracts from NATO allies with this endorsement. Expect this tech at European airports and other countries around the globe with the Sentrycs acquisition - a perfect use case. Their tech is being used already in 180 + areas.
8. The Association of American Railroads (AAR) Wireless Communications Committee (WCC) announced in September that IEEE 802.16t (“dot16”) will serve as the upgrade path for the legacy 160 MHz LMR voice network, joining the 900 MHz and 450 MHz networks where dot16 has already been formally adopted. Doesn’t get the attention of Ondas Autonomous systems but important all the same. They have a diversified product portfolio and are global. People underestimate the potential of this company. I will not.
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